Endangered Species
Cold hard fact: a lot of people in the “swing states” who voted for Trump in 2016 will not in 2020. Why am I so sure about this? Because they will be dead. Conservative, old white voters are an endangered species and are being repopulated by Gen Z voters who are freaked out by school shootings, climate change and the prospect of insurmountable student debt. Many of them were traumatized when their parents lost their jobs and homes during the recession in 2008. Add to this that when it comes to social issues, they are center-left to way the fuck out there so capitulation to a rapidly shrinking demographic is kind of bullshit.
When people say those of us who live on the Coasts are stuck in a liberal bubble keep this in mind. In 2004, W used same-sex marriage as a wedge issue, and it probably helped turn out enough people in a few states to hand him a second term. Yet within a decade public opinion shifted, in part because younger people supported LGBTQ+ equality. The electorate has rapidly moved to the left when it comes to numerous issues. No, the majority might not be on board with banning private health insurance or completely open borders but they are in favor of something that resembles “Medicare for all who want it” and a compassionate immigration policy.
As for the impeachment inquiry, comparisons to Clinton are a false equivalency and demeaning to the public’s intelligence. Bill Clinton lied about getting a blowjob. I had issues with his presidency, but this was not one of them. He may have abused his power yet there is absolutely no comparison to Trump’s perpetual thuggery and blatant lies. Zero. Few questioned Clinton’s patriotism, and most felt that his personal life was none of our business. Yes, Trump’s base will continue to support him even if he killed their firstborn, but that is at best a third of the electorate — as in people who actually vote, not neccesarily adult population. Fox News might be the most-watched news network with 2.4 million people tuning in every night, but that is still less than 1% of the country and the median age of its audience is anywhere from 65–68. If 2018 is any indication, young people will come out to vote in record numbers again and could turn the tide in places such as Texas.
As the United States continues to get younger, less white and more liberal, Trump’s base will shrink. He might have picked up some Never Trumpers whose stock portfolios swelled in the last few years, but with signs of a recession right around the corner, the economic reasons for keeping this charlatan in power will also diminish. And for all who’ve financially gained since Trump came into office, many more are suffering. Income inequality is the worst it’s been in 50 years.
So why are so many people afraid that an impeachment inquiry will give Trump four more years? I think it’s just propaganda that is being pushed by some white dudes who are fearful of losing their power. This isn’t to say that others don’t share this concern, but where is this narrative originating? Mostly, from Republicans who intend to intimidate and centrist pundits who are out of touch.
This doesn’t mean that the Democrats should make hasty decisions and so far, Speaker Pelosi has exercised reasonable caution. She’s taken flak from the left for not moving on impeachment sooner but holding her ground has given her even more strength and credibility. Most of the Democrats in Congress, importantly those who represent districts Trump won, support the impeachment inquiry. They might have concerns about the messaging and process, but Adam Schiff is no fool. Cyberbully-in-chief Trump knows this, which is why he continues to attack him on Twitter, and a lot of people are tired of having a president who acts like an impetuous toddler.
We’ll see how this plays out over the next few months, but I’m not that worried about impeachment backfiring. Some say that even if Congress votes to impeach, the Senate won’t confirm so what’s the point? Already public opinion is shifting. More than 50% of the country supports the impeachment inquiry, and as more details come to light, this number is likely to increase. I don’t think that is going to change many if any Senate votes, but it could hurt GOP senators up for re-election in 2020, perhaps handing this chamber over to the Democrats.
Impeachment is the right thing to do and anyone who is not a sociopath would like to think they have a sense of decency. I don’t doubt that a lot of us are concerned about the impeachment inquiry emboldening Trump’s base, but in the end, the majority of the country believes his corruption is unacceptable. Trump’s base is what it is until it, quite literally, dies. I trust that Nancy Pelosi knows what she’s doing and that younger voters will make a difference in 2020.
